For over 23 years I have been a weather watcher from my home in Galena Forest located in the Carson Range of the Sierra Nevada mountains near Reno, Nevada. My interest in the weather dates back to my childhood when I am told I would pretend to be the TV weatherman. My years of flying as an instrument rated pilot increased my interest since many times correct weather interpretation kept my family and me alive. As an avid skier I am always interested in the storms that produce the heaven like powder snow we love to play in.

Over the years I found there are lots of folks interested in the same thing. Long range forecasting is my main interest, and it seems that local weather people are very hesitant to forecast very long range ( more than five days). Hence, I decided to begin sending an e-mail to my friends who shared the common interest or just wanted to plan sick days off around big snow dumps. Updates are posted every few days as weather predictions change during the active weather months. From June through September updates are seldom. Daily updates are found on our weather station site noted below. - Randy York
February 2, 2012 , 6:30 AM

The dry Winter continues with high pressure building into the Western US. Sunny conditions will persist through the weekend with seasonal temperatures.

The system I predicted for the 7th or 8th will arrive as forecasted. A surface low will undercut the upper level high pressure ridge about next Tuesday with cloudy skies, gusty winds and a chance for some needed precipitation. Unfortunately, it will produce very little in the way of measurable snow, maybe 6"at the highest elevations and a few inches down to 5500 ft. The high pressure will rebuild within 24 hours.

Looking ahead I don't see any significant change into mid February. There is plenty of moisture in the Pacific, we have a moderate La Nina, an active MJO, and a positive PNA yet the upper level high pressure ridge continues to deflect systems to our north. As I said in my last forecast, this is one of those season where we are foolish to forecast much beyond 7 to 10 days since computer models continue to have great difficulty handling these conditions. Below is a graphic depicting the anticipated precipitation from February 7 - 11th. My best guess is mostly dry conditions with an occasional weak system through mid month, hopefully a break will come in the last half of the month.

You can view current conditions and a daily forecast on my weather station site including a graphic on potential precipitation. It is updated each morning by 9 am. Click here www.goybs.com/weather.html.

Randy

NWS

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